Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (5f)
European horses have a 50% strike rate in the eight editions, having won the last three with Mischief Magic in ’22, Big Evs in ’23 and Magnum Force flying home to land last year’s renewal ahead of this year’s Flying Five (G1) champ Arizona Blaze. Prior to that Wesley Ward and Irad Ortiz Jr. dominated the race three years in a row.
Wesley Ward has four entered in the race this year, but only one has made the cut this for this renewal; third favourite Schwarzenegger (USA) with John R Velzquez on board. Stablemates Rogue Legend (R16) and Bacio (R17) are reserves, while Should’ve has scratched.
The European contingent is led by True Love (IRE) and Havana Anna, who finished 1-2 in the Tattersalls Sceptre Sessions Chevely Park Stakes (Group 1) over 6f on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket. They both fit the profile on trends, having run over five furlongs with success.
True Love (IRE) took the Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2) at Royal Ascot and broke her maiden at the third attempt in her career and first at Group 2 level. She has since posted improved progressive speed figures of 94 (103 performance rating) in her demolition of the Railway Stakes (Group 2) field at the Curragh over 6f. Following that, sticking to 6f she posted a further improved 102 SR when second to Power Blue (IRE) in the Keeneland Phoenix Stakes (Group 1) and a 109 SR last time out.
Havana Anna has a similarly progressive profile with 98, 100, and 107 and follows True Love in our sprint rating rankings from the Euros. Close in behind are Mission Central (IRE) and Military Code on 106. The first of which will undoubtedly be the forgotten O’Brien horse – if those even exist – while the latter represents Charlie Appleby and Godolphin with a career best effort last time out with a run style that didn’t suit on a speed favouring track at York (where he was a marginal second to Revival Power – subsequent Flying Childers (G2) winner). On the other hand, Mission Central, over 5f, has not been able to match his prowess over 6f to date.
Appleby would obviously favour Beckford’s Folly (IRE) – who beat Brussels, Aspect Ireland, and the aforementioned Revival Power in the Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3) earlier in the month with a great run and would undoubtedly be the no.1 for the boys in blue should he be here – but Appleby has done it before with a less fancied one in Mischief Magic (arguably more accomplished than Mission Central at this point) and likened the two trainees in an interview earlier in the week. Indeed, he will likely have to do it in the same exciting fashion, from behind with luck, if he is to prevail.
One that appears to look to provide the pace - Schwarzenegger (USA) leads the charge for the home contingent, having beaten Obliteration (USA) by half a length in the Indian Summer Stakes (Listed) – getting the run of the race out the front, while Obliteration (USA) has been installed at 25/1 best price in the UK. The Wesley Ward factor and Schwarzenegger (USA) the lesser tried and seemingly improving horse could explain some of the severe price difference, but Obliteration (USA) produced monster figures of 112 speed and 118 performance when winning the Sandford Stakes (Grade 3) by 10.5 lengths. That said, the next three that followed him home didn’t exactly support the form next time out and he has since struggled to recover from that run with his subsequent figures posted.
Intricate Spirit (USA) appears to be clearly overlooked at 16/1 (best price) with a debut victory at 5.5f and a Grade 3 victory over 6f in the Futurity Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct contributing to his three race CV. The last of which showed some versatility in his run having to switch around horse to wint – and the time was good as well with a speed rating of 110, but a lower overall performance rating of 103. He’s certainly in the mix.
Cy Fair (USA) produced back-to-back 106 speed figures on debut and her second start, before dominating the bet365 Algonquin Stakes (Listed) by 3.25 lengths at Woodbine earlier this month. Slapped with a tougher draw in 10 on Friday, Irad Ortiz Jr. will be earning his keep with his decision making – though the daughter of Not This Time (USA) did show she had a fairly versatile style last time out and looked very good in doing so, which would suggest the pace drawn outside her is not the end of the world.
Lennilu (USA), Later Than Planned (IRE), and Aspect Island all don’t cut the mustard on the figures in this company – but not to say they can’t improve leaps and bounds on the biggest stage, it’s just very unlikely. Others are preferred to Brussels, who is 8-1 best price with less real stand out potential.
An open affair with the European filly setting the class standard. Of the lot I’d expect her to prevail at what appears to be a decent price for an Aidan O’Brien first stringer, but the main dangers are clearly Cy Fair (USA), Intricate Spirit (USA), Havana Anna, and Military Code – who would be the ones to use in exotics.
True Love win @ 7/2
Cy Fair win @ 12/1
1-2-3: True Love, Cy Fair, Intricate Spirit/Havanna Anna/Military Code.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (1 mile 1/16th)
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is an extremely exciting race, with generally higher performance figures across the board from these dirt fillies than their same age turf sprinters the race prior.
A nine deep field, Percy’s Bar (USA) leads the way on with a 114 speed rating to her name and a 111 performance figure last time out in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes (Grade 1), where she lost it in the stewards room to Tommy Jo (USA), who posted a 109 speed rating and a 106 performance rating. She already has a 110 performance rating to her name from her 6.5 length romp ahead of her same rival in the Spinaway Stakes (Grade 1).
It would be reasonable to expect a reversal of that form one way or another, but Explora (USA) posted a 106 when finishing second in the Del Mar Debutante Stakes (Grade 1) over 7f to Bottle Of Rouge (USA) – who posted a 109 that day with a 103 performance rating.
The stats are against the Bob Baffert pair, however, having had nine beaten entries in the race since his last win – which was in 2007. That takes a bit of the shine off the recent figures.
Iron Orchard (USA) comes into this unbeaten with three starts and decent figures to boot, including a 101 speed rating when winning the Seeking The Ante Stakes at Saratoga before landing the Frizette Stakes (Grade 1) over a mile - which is also a key prep for this race.
Meaning (USA) comes into the race with just her debut experience and doesn’t look to be worth a punt against the strong main protagonists, while La Ville Lumiere (USA) has already failed to trouble the judge a couple of times since breaking her maiden early in the year and didn’t produce performance figures worthy of consideration solely on that basis when third to Explora (USA) in the Oak Leaf Stakes (Grade 2).
Gun Runner filly, Super Corredora (USA) has shown glimpses with an improved beyer when stepping up in trip and produced good finishing splits to be worth consideration in the exotics.
Similarly, La Wally (USA) has a progressive profile – just a level below the main protagonists – that makes her worthwhile for the exotics given her price range in the 16-20/1 mark.
Interestingly Tommy Jo (USA) appeared to be a little rank early on in the Darley Alcibiades (G1) so she may well have never passed the first past the post in Perry’s Bar (USA) but the bump certainly made all the difference in the winning distance.
It makes for an extremely murky race, but I’ll take the punt with trust in the Tommy Jo and Perry’s Bar form with a reverse forecast. Iron Orchard and Super Correda in behind.
Tommy Jo/Perry’s Bar box exacta
1-2-3: Tommy Jo/Perry’s Bar, Iron Orchard/Super Correda.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (1m)
Much has been made of Precise being by far and away the class filly in the race, and indeed she is in this field. She has a similar profile to Lake Victoria bringing two Group 1 victories to the table, and while Lake Vic had not stretched out to a mile, yet she had superior figures to that of Precise. She also hadn’t drawn the outside slot on the day like the daughter of Starspangledbanner.
From 15 attempts in this race, no filly has ever won from stall 13 or finished in the top four in the race – the majority, if not all, not as good as Precise granted – but it will still be a truly magnificent performance to cement her as the filly that the Ballydoyle PR machine has conveyed recently. The fact she is still as short as she is in the betting is a clear indictment on the lack of quality competition and, if she had posted similar figures to the 115 of Lake Victoria (Precise only 108), she would be a good bet.
As a result, punters may look elsewhere:
Queen Of Hawaii (IRE), albeit progressive, isn’t anywhere near good enough on the figures and would need to improve another 10-15+ pounds to be in the mix. It’s a similar case with Pacific Mission, though she boasts better figures (94 speed and 94 performance) from her run last time out in the May Hill Stakes (Group 2).
Balantina (IRE) offers a decent level of form from her run in the Prix Six Perfections (Group 3) at Deauville, but ran extremely flat next time out at the Curragh. Drawn in 10, she isn’t ideally placed but a 107 speed figure in France is not to be sniffed at, let alone the form line carried with Green Spirit – especially at 30/1. Oisin on board, he also has the sole win on the Ten Sovereigns filly, this would further top off a stellar year for the UK Champion Jockey.
Celebrity Warrior (USA), drawn in slot #7, really does deserve to be 30/1, if not bigger given the performance figures we have in the book for her.
Brave Deb (USA) in eight looks a decent proposition in theory being unbeaten with a 100 speed rating to her name but has trends going against her being a West Coast turf filly, of which the cohort have never won the Juvenile Fillies turf.
A key prep, the Miss Grillo (Grade 2) has provided the winner of this race on six occasions and gives us the unbeaten filly (in two career starts) Ground Support (USA). By all accounts it was not a top-class renewal and a 96 speed and performance rating would back that up. That said, this filly has never been properly respected and dotted up at 106-1 at Kentucky Downs on debut and went off double figures in the Miss Grillo. With a similar running style she may once again find out fillies lacking an early kick. About time we put some respect on her name!
The Jessamine winner, Imaginationthelady (USA), is similarly two from two and from the prep that produced Rushing Fall in 2017 (Del Mar) and Aunt Pearl in 2020 (Keeneland). A 100 speed figure last time out puts her in a position to be able to win with improvement and the maestro Frankie Dettori up top again may well facilitate some.
Infinite Sky (USA) finished in behind in the Jessamine, finishing very well and has a good progressive profile to step up in grade further but is at the mercy of which pace scenario develops given she doesn’t appear to have lots of early speed.
Another unbeaten in two, Final Accord (USA), posted a 104 speed figure last time out when winning the Matron Stakes (G3) over 6f and appeared to get better with every yard having been unable to stick the early pace – so if she is able to stay the extended trip she should be well equipped to hit the frame with those finishing gears.
Unbeaten in three, Ultimate Love (USA) is partnered with Johnny V for the first time and comes into the race off the back of three wide margin victories, though without producing standout speed figures in the process. She’s still looks like she could prove a decent price if she gets a nice ground-saving trip from the maestro on top.
Switch In Love is the joker in the pack with more mystique - from the barn of top class trainer Yoshito Yahagi, who campaigns Forever Young, and landed two Breeders’ Cup races at the track in 2021 with Marche Lorraine and Loves Only You.
At 20-1 plus Switch In Love is worth including in the exotics if you have to play, but given the shape of the race and betting it's a no play race for me.
No bets
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1 mile 1/16th)
Here we go Ted Noffey (USA).
The unbeaten Into Mischief colt has produced top class speed figures of 120+ in his last two starts and performance figures of 120+ to go along with them. In fact, his peak is 123, which is five better than the next best in the field Mr. A. P (USA) (30-1) – who posted 118 in his Del Mar MSW 2nd placed effort (albeit with a performance figure significantly lower) and has since built on it his performance figure with an improved one when winning over 8.5f at Santa Anita earlier in October.
Blackout Time (USA), second behind super Ted in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland, boasts the third rank career speed figure and second rank performance figure of the seven contenders – which is the smallest in the’s 42-year history. He is progressing with every run and therefore poses a big issue for the likes of Litmus Test (USA), Brant (USA), and Intrepido (USA) who all need to improve past him anyway to get near the standard that Ted Noffey (USA) has already set.
I was going to write off Civil Liberty (USA), but his connections have done that for us anyway.
By no means is it a write off for Brant (USA), Litmus Test (USA), and Intrepido (USA) who have similarly respectable speed figures from their last outing – they will just simply have to improve while Ted Noffey would have to have gone backwards by some way. Though Intrepido (USA) is the preferred of the trio.
Ted Noffey looks a very good bet at evens available in the UK and still an ok investement at to the predicted morning line of 4-5. Blackout Time to frank the form last time out and Mr A. P. to run into the three at a big price for the exotics.
Ted Noffey win @ Evens.
1-2-3: Ted Noffey, Blackout Time, Mr A. P.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (1 mile)
A race dominated by European entrants, with Aidan O’Brien taking seven renewals, Charlie Appleby three, and John Gosden two.
The first of those trainers comes into the race with a hot one in Gstaad. There is far less reason to worry about the draw here with four winners having come from stalls 12-14; three of which being from the Aidan O’Brien stable including Henri Matisse (IRE) from the outside trap 12 last year.
Gstaad has produced better figures than his elder stablemate in the lead up to this Juvenile Turf, with a 5lb better speed rating and an 8lb better performance rating in his final prep. And consistently better figures in defeat. Henri Matisse too had not stretched out but granted he was by Wooton Bassett out of a Pivotal mare, in contrast to Gstaad being by Starspangledbanner out of Exceed And Excel mare Mosa Mine – who has only previously produced horses that deliver at five and six furlongs.
He did, however, finish the best of the pack chasing Gewan in the Dewhurst and he wasn’t exactly running out of gas on yielding ground at the Curragh the time before. And who are we to doubt Aidan O’Brien when he clearly thinks he will stay the distance with plans for the 2000 Guineas next year.
North Coast (IRE) was pumped in that Goffs Vincent O’Brien Stakes (Group 1) and has not been seen since, but a revisit of his performance figure (104) from what was a promising run in the Tyros Stakes (Group 3) and any improvement would see him in the mix at a decent price.
Fellow raider Ardisia (IRE) is yet to stretch past six furlongs and doesn’t have the breeding to suggest he definitely will relish the mile – plus he has had a very busy season already!
Outside (or inside) of the favourite, #13 slot Hey Nay Nay (USA) will have to buck the trend that no West Coast-base runner has ever won the race, but he is unbeaten and boasts a win at the track already with figures that could be good enough for the places. In #12 Bottas and #11 Turf Star will need to find a fair bit not having cut it on our figures relative to the favourite.
The same can be said for #7 Gordon Pass (USA), #5 Lets Be Frank (USA), #2 Street Beast (USA), and #1 Heeere’s Johnny (USA) – though what a name.
It’s fair to assume Outfielder (USA) will give it a go off the front from stall three but again would need to improve some way, and prove he has the stamina, to challenge the favourite – and he could well set it up nicely for Gstaad to finish off. Just outside him in #4 Third Beer is the lesser preferred if you are taking one out of the Zuma Beach Stakes (G3) – which would be Stark Contrast (USA) – but there is better value than that pair elsewhere in the form of Argos (USA).
Argos (USA) landed the Summer Stakes (G1) over Godolphin’s Wild Desert (IRE) and earned good figures in the process. In fact, he boasts the best that the home contingent have on their CVs and clearly improved when stepping up to the mile; he looks to be the one – if any – that has a chance to find out the favourite (14-1).
This one really is Gstaad’s to lose, however. We’ll hope the 9/5 morning line is correct, as he’s currently 5/4 in the UK.
Gstaad to win @ 5/4.
1-2-3: Gstaad, Argos, Hey Nay Nay.