BREEDERS’ CUP SATURDAY PREVIEW
Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (Dirt) (7f)
Sweet Azteca (USA) is a very fair favourite and looks the likely winner if she can overcome historical trends, with two stellar runs this season including over 6.5 furlongs at this track and she has proven she is able to stretch out when winning the Beholder Mile Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita early last year. But 83% of winners of this race have won over the 7f distance (including all three renewals at Del Mar), of which this filly has not even experienced.
Her first prep of two this year was a career second best performance on figures, before she didn’t need to leave it all out there when winning by 3.5 lengths at Del Mar last time out. Another issue (trend wise) for her is that historically no horse has won it with less than three preps coming into the race.
If that is to be the case this year, that will have Tamara (USA) penned too. She’s obviously got problems with only two races in the two years, but she clearly hadn’t missed a step with her engine, coming back only a few pounds off her best performance figure recorded at Del Mar over 7f in 2023.
Three-year-old Praying (USA) does make the three-prep cut but with performance figures at least 10lb inferior to the market leader, and all over 6f. Plus fourteen of eighteen winners have been aged four or five.
One of Bob Baffert’s three entries, Splendora (USA), is in a similar position with similar figures and three starts with a poor season debut over 7f before stretching out to 9f – where she produced career best speed and performance ratings before besting them over a mile at Del Mar two runs later; a muddled record with 7f clearly not her best trip.
He saddles two better chances in third favourite Hope Road (USA) and fourth favourite Richi (USA). Hope Road (USA) has won over the distance (last time out with joint career best performance) but has a peak performance rating of 102 – which she will need to improve on to take this and doesn’t have an obviously progressive profile. Clearly likes Del Mar with two from two at the track under Bob Bafferts tutelage.
Richi (CHI) brings a higher (3lb) ceiling to the table but her worst performance has come over seven furlongs at Santa Anita and historically coming back down to a sprint trip from further has only aided one winner in the history of the race.
Vahva (USA) is all about this distance but her recent form is a little lukewarm to hang your hat on and her performance in the race last year is no saving grace either. Zeitlos (USA), by contrast is nothing to write home about over the distance and is swerved despite producing decent figures elsewhere.
Haulin Ice (USA) has plenty of the trend hallmarks of a winner in this race including more than one win over the distance, in the four to five age range, and having come into this off the back of a dominant prep in the Princess Rooney Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park.
Saffie A Joseph Jr took the race last year with Soul Of An Angel (USA) (same final prep) and the same connections so this is now no foreign task. She also possesses decent figures this year and a peak 105 that could mix it with what the main protagonists in the race - so looks pretty good value to knock off one of the top two in the market at 16/1 with some of the UK books.
Haulin Ice (USA) each/way @ 16/1
1-2-3: Sweet Azteca/Haulin Ice/Tamara
Provagen Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (5f)
Motorious (USA) heads the market with Ag Bullet (USA) and Arizona Blaze (USA) close in behind as second favourites. Ag Bullet (USA) is at least a few pounds off both of them in terms of performance ratings and therefore inherently represents poor value in that price cohort.
On the other hand, Motorious certainly has a right to be up there as a seasoned pro over 5f with consistent figures and having nearly captured the race last year if not for Starlust flying home for Rossa Ryan.
Clear of Motorious’ peak performance rating in the last two year though, by five, is Arizona Blaze. He comes into this off the back of a career best performance in the Flying Five (G1) and clearly loved the whole experience last year when setting a then career best performance at the end of his 2yo career in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint behind Magnum Force.
Of the other European raiders, She’s Quality just isn’t the same quality as Arizona Blaze or Bucanero Fuerte, but still rates higher than Governor Sam (USA), the lightly raced Shisospicy (USA), and Khaadem (IRE) – though his switch to America clearly stoked a relative improvement vs his UK runs in 2025.
Bring Theband Home (USA) has a 112 speed rating to his name but appeared to flatten out in his most recent prep and therefore doesn’t appeal over the Euro raider that sets the standard. Reef Runner (USA) earned a respectable 110 speed and performance figure last time out in the Eddie D Stakes (G2) over 6.5f, where Yellow Card (USA) finished half a length second. That said, Motorious (USA) got the better of Reef Runner (USA) earlier this year and he still sits behind favourite in rank over 5f despite the improved rating over further subsequently.
A rough draw for Japanese raider Invincible Papa (AUS) probably puts him out of any reckoning and Bucanero Fuerte is more likely to provide a favourable race for his team mate – by design or not – than himself.
Keep it simple here and play the best horse in the race at his current peak, who also demonstrated an affinity with the experience last year and take Arizona Blaze who can benefit from a pace burn up with Bring Theband Home, Shisospicy, Ag Bullet, and potentially Bucanero Fuerte to go at it early from the gates.
Arizona Blaze win @ 5/1
1-2-3: Arizona Blaze, Motorious, Reef Runner.
UPDATE : In the absence of Arizona Blaze Motorious becomes the default selection, but its not a race to play with any confidence.
Cygames Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade 1) (Dirt) (6f)
A very tough one and probably best left playing for fun. Straight No Chaser (USA) is back to defend his title from stall 12, having done it from 8 of 11 last year with lesser pace to contend with. His prep coming into the race has left question marks that can only be answered on Saturday, and both his runs this year have been well below his level – last year he came into the race with a 119 performance figure, this just a 104.
Bentornato (USA) has legitimate claims despite only having a single prep – in which he earned a 114 performance rating - since finishing second to Straight No Chaser (USA) in last year’s renewal. That has cemented the 115 performance rating he did at the Breeders’ Cup and he can be considered the standard setter for this renewal on that basis – a fair favourite.
Inside him in stall nine is American Stage (USA), who shouldn’t have enough to win it but a replication of performance in the in Meydan finishing behind Tuz. His trainer, of the Forever Young fame, is respected. Outside him in stall 11 is Mullikin, who had a grim prep in the Forego Stakes (G1) at Saratoga and he will need to bounce back from that and some, which I wouldn’t hang your hat on.
Nakatomi (USA) has something to find on what he has done in the past two years and is only getting older, while the sole 3yo in the field - #13 Mad House – also has a lot to be desired with his figures and will probably be in deep water here.
Outside of him in the car park #14, is Watchatalkinabout (USA). A tough draw and while he goes very well over the distance having never been out of the places – including three wins – in seven attempts, he too is in deep water.
The other end of the stalls in the one slot, Kopion (USA) is yet to run over the distance but has posted reliable performances from 105-109 in her four runs over further this season, that shouldn’t be enough to win this though and Richard Mandella will have to garner an improvement.
#2 Banishing (USA) has had a load of runs since winning over the distance and is somewhat of a wildcard here given his best performances – by far – have come over 1m 1f.
Out of three, the veteran Lovesick Blues took the Bing Crosby (G1) with good figures before improving again in the California Flag Handicap over six and a half – he looks well primed to make a mark here at the grand age of 7.
#4 Patriot Spirit could be the pace horse to give him a lead but shouldn’t have the quality to land this, while Big City Lights (USA) outside him will also need to improve to be in the mix.
Outside them, Dr Venkman (USA) (16/1, 14/1) looks a decent price to hit the frame given his consistency, while Imagination (USA) seems far too short at 5/1 for what he has in the book on figures.
Lovesick Blues and Bentornado look the angles to play here if you are.
No bet
1-2-3: Bentornado, Lovesick Blues, Dr Venkman.
Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade 1) (Dirt) (1m1f)
Dorth Vader (USA) posted a 109 performance figure last time out and really should challenge if she can hold the level or find more as a five year old, but favourite Seismic Beauty (USA) is joint top on performance figures – but more progressive than her co-leaders Nitrogen and Gin Gin - with 110 and having improved with each of her last three runs; she also has the top beyer in the race on 104. An uncomplicated run style from #8 will prove harder than her last prep in the Clement Hirsch Stakes (G1) but she has done it at the track and the expectation is that she will improve again for Bob Baffert to take this one off the front again. On the balance of probabilities, she should just be too good.
#9 Majestic Oops (USA) is just not good enough to win this with her best and comes into this off the back of two relatively poor runs in the Ballerina (G1) and the Delaware Handicap (G3); she is not in this league. #13 Regaled (USA) may have won that Delaware Handicap (G3) as her prep but has put in far too many middling figures prior to that to be trusted to take this one out. #11 Dry Powder (USA) fits a similar bill in that she doesn’t cut in this field on figures, despite a seemingly good second placed effort in the Cotillion Stakes (G1) at Parx last time out.
Inside in stall 10 is Gun Song (USA), who also shouldn’t have enough to trouble the main protagonists with just a 102 peak performance rating to her name, while Alice Verite (JPN) further inside in slot 6 doesn’t appear to have discovered a huge upside since we last saw her at Del Mar and is highly unlikely to be good enough having solely run on turf since.
Sarawak Rim (ARG) is four from five and improving – albeit over in Argentina but Ignacio Correas IV knows a good one when he sees one and Irad on board is always a positive. The lack of US form will inevitably provide inherent value in her price but she doesn’t appear to be a win proposition relative to the main protagonists.
One of which is inside her in #1, with Irad’s brother Jose on board. Nitrogen (USA) comes into this off the back of a joint career best effort (Spinster G1) in terms of performance figures – the previous being last year at Del Mar in the Juvenile Fillies. That joint career best wasn’t enough to get the better of Gin Gin (USA) in post position seven last time out, where she too ran a career best 110 for new trainer Brendan Walsh having switched at the start of the 2025 season.
Stablemate #3 Clicquot (USA) is just a level below and doesn’t appear to represent value, while next to her in stall #4 Scylla (USA) - who hasn’t managed to get her head in front in her last eight – doesn’t fill you with hope that she will here despite a decent performance figure in her last prep.
Seismic Beauty (USA) win @ 7/4
1-2-3: Seismic Beauty, Nitrogen, Gin Gin.
Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (1m4f)
All aboard the Graffard train here. Minnie Hauk (IRE) is not an attractive proposition at 11/10, given she had what appeared to be an extremely hard race in France and this field is by no means a cakewalk.
Last year’s winner, Rebel’s Romance (IRE), is back to defend his title. His credentials speak for themselves, but he didn’t have to be at his best to win this last year and will certainly need to pitch in more than that to win this renewal. The concern is his recent performance figures suggest he only has an extra couple of pounds to give and while it hurts to leave him on the bench it has to be done. It will be a great watch if he does it again and adds to his £11.27 million kitty.
King Edward VII Stakes (G2) winner Amiloc lines up as fourth favourite and wouldn’t have enough to take this with what he has on paper, but a 118 projection from his run at Ascot in similar conditions would suggest he could be in the mix if he can fulfil that.
Rebel Red, Ethical Diamond, and Rashabar (IRE) don’t have the figures at the distance to get in the mix, though Brian Meehan appeared keen on his boy through the week. On the other hand, Hill Road (USA) has been mixing it creditably on the dirt but is simply not as competent on the turf.
Wimbledon Hawkeye, Redistricting, El Cordobes, Silawi, and Gold Phoenix (IRE) all would need a fair improvement; the 26 and 27 starts of the latter pair would also render it less likely to come.
The main assault on the favourite outside of Rebel’s Romance (IRE) should come from Goliath (GER), who runs for Francis-Henri Graffard out of the two slot. His trainer has been on a tear up this year and reckons he has the horse back right after a tough time in Hong Kong caused a performance hangover until more recently. If ‘back right’ is a return to somewhere near his best, he is a great proposition here.
On peak performance figures, he tops the race and earned those on quick ground at Ascot when beating Bluestocking in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G1) at the 2024 Royal Meeting. He appears to be headed back that way and looks great value for a lights out trainer against a potentially vulnerable short priced favourite. Get stuck in at 8/1.
Goliath each way @ 8/1
1-2-3: Goliath, Rebel’s Romance, Minnie Hauk
Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (Dirt) (1m2f)
A former Classic for the ages flipped on it’s head by the scratching of a generational talent in Sovereignty (USA). Nevertheless, the field is stacked and is headed by defending champion Sierra Leone (USA), who has added help in the form of pace making stablemate Contrary Thinking (USA).
His inclusion has elicited a lot of toys out the pram from the camp of the blue and orange hues with the Chad brown trainee causing havoc to try get the lead in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) and unseating the #8 in the classic, Mindframe (USA); who was on the up with a career best figure in the Stephen Foster (G1) before having poor Irad flicked off in interference-gate with Contrary Thinking (USA). An improvement on that would have him at least in the placings of an average Classic (G1) renewal - though this still looks an above average Classic.
The same catastrophe could happen here, but the relentless criticism from the Repole Stable since would surely have wedged some caution into Florent Geroux’s mind. Plus he has an easier job from four on the rabbit – which is a problem for Del Mar lover Fierceness (USA) in the one slot. He will no doubt have to be a braver horse than he has shown away from Del Mar – where he has put his two best runs together in the last year.
Contrary Thinking (USA) did a pretty poor job of pace making in the JCGC and if the field have any sense they will let him burn off in front in a similar fashion given he has absolutely no chance of winning - even with a big head start.
Forever Young (JPN) produced a big figure in the Saudi Derby and couldn’t run close to that at Meydan on his last start in April, so comes into this prep-less and the last time he ran off a decent break was when winning the Japan Dirt Classic (Listed) by 1.25 lengths – not a groundbreaking run fresh - as a prep for last year’s renewal of this race. He appears too short in the market in the context of that but it’s hard to write him off as last year’s third placed finisher.
Nevada Beach (USA) and Antiquarian (USA) are right in the market and while the latter took the JCGC ahead of Sierra Leone, he hasn’t shown he has enough in the locker to put it up to a field this strong.
Even without Sovereignty (USA), the Kentucky Derby (G1) form in the race is very strong with the second (Journalism), and third (Baeza) both taking up spots in stalls nine and two respectively. The former is a model of consistency and boasts a prep against older horses – which Baeza (USA) does not. When given the chance away from Sovereignty, he has taken it against his age group and has consequently been unlucky to have been born in the same year as a generational talent. He’s also got the potential uplift of a jockey change on his side.
He bumped into Fierceness (USA) last time out in the Pacific Classic, who showed an unfamiliarly successful run style to go in between horses and win the race but he faces a tougher challenge with the variables of the pace scenario. He certainly has a great chance of winning this but the market probably has it about right for him.
Interestingly Sierra Leone is unlikely to get as good of a set up as last year, even with this pacemaker (who failed to set up last time out) so I’m happy to side with the versatile and hardy Journalism - having now had a sighter at the older horses - who appears to be overlooked in the market at the prices (8/1).
Journalism each way @ 8/1.
1-2-3: Journalism, Fierceness, Sierra Leone
Fanduel Breeders’ Cup Mile presented by PDJF (Grade 1) (Turf) (1m)
A fascinating affair potentially lacking a defined pace scenario. Notable Speech returns for a second bite at the cherry this year, having been usurped by More Than Looks (USA) and Johannes (USA). He reopposes the latter this year and brings to the table a level performance standard to last year, but has the added advantage of having got the hang of running round two turns now. He sets a very fair standard again and is joined by some interesting Euros.
The Lion In Winter (IRE) always garners more expectation than he generally delivers in performance since being touted as Aidan O’Briens Derby horse in the infancy of his career. He doesn’t appear to the have the constitution or the performance level on figures – with a peak 112 speed rating and 113 performance rating – to top the best in this group.
He has more chance of figuring than Gas Me Up in slot 12 and Qirat in stall 13 – even though he did nick this year’s Sussex Stakes (G1), it was a poor renewal in terms of figures.
Fellow international raider Gran Oriente (CHI) brings G1 form to the table from the capital of his homeland but it still doesn’t match up to the depth of top-class form in this group. Much can be said for dual South African G1 winner One Stripe (SAF).
Johannes (USA) got the better of a less experienced Notable Speech last year, but I can’t see him doing it again having brought in a pair of inferior (to last year’s) prep runs and fellow domestic Formidable Man (USA) is preferred on figures having earned 110, 113, and 116 performances figures in sequence for his last three runs so he is clearly going the right way, at the right level, and on the right track in his last two. Johnny V on board and he is a bigger price (12/1) than last year’s second placed colt.
Jonquil sits just behind the pair in the market but lacks the consistency to trust that he won’t bounce after his career best effort (on figures) last time out at Keeneland, like he did after a career best in the French 2000 Guineas.
In that Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes (G1) at Keeneland, the standard setters in terms of performance figures locked horns and Rhetorical (USA) came out on top against Program Trading to earn a speed figure of 120 and a performance rating of 119. Similarly, Chad Brown’s trainee earned 118 and 117 respectively – that was a significant jump from his usual performance level, however, so could well be tough to replicate this start.
Rhetorical (USA) is now five from six and on the improve with the top figures in the group, he has to be backed at 9/1, though another horse on the improve in Sahlan (IRE) should trouble the frame. Under the tutelage of Francis-Henri Graffard, the 3yo Wootton Bassett colt is lightly raced, highly progressive and is in a great position to improve from the 112 performance rating from Longchamp last time out.
It's progressive youth in this one that offers the value with Rhetorical (9/1) and Sahlan (6/1) in what is a competitive race lacking a definitive pace scenario.
Rhetorical win @ 9/1
Sahlan win @ 6/1
1-2-3: Rhetorical, Sahlan, Notable Speech
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) (Dirt) (1m)
The two standouts in this race on figures this season are Goal Oriented (USA) and the favourite Nysos (USA).
Will Take It (USA) is so far off the standard it is possible he has just been entered for a great day out, but if you don’t line up you don’t have a shot I guess. Tumbarumba (USA) will need to improve some way from his 103 performance rating in his Churchill prep to trouble the judge, while Chancer McPatrick hasn’t hit the heights of his early 2yo career this season. Much like Citizen Bull, who clearly loves the track but is yet to revisit the standard that landed him the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile a year ago – though I’ll take him for the exotics at double figures.
Touch Of Destiny (USA) should find this too much, while White Abarrio (USA) has given his best over a furlong further. Mystik Dan (USA) is in a similar boat.
Goal Oriented (USA) sits three pounds behind Nysos (USA) – inclusive of weight for age – and looks a value play for the exotics. In addition, Full Serrano (USA) is back to defend his title but faces a tougher task this time given he simply doesn’t have the performance figures to match the standard of Nysos (USA) – who is also proven at the track and distance, of which Goal Oriented is not.
Nysos win @ 13/8
1-2-3: Nysos, Full Serrano, Goal Oriented.
Maker’s Mark Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (1m3f)
An open renewal with Cinderella’s Dream looking to make amends for leaving it too late last year.
Mission Of Joy (CAN) occupies the one slot and will need marked improvement for the step back up in trip, in deeper than she is used to but she comes in off the back of a confidence boosting win.
#2 Stellify (USA), now unbeaten in three (four starts) provides a superior performance figure a few pounds shy of that of Atsila (IRE) outside of her in three. Both are lightly raced fillies and in general are on the improve – though Atsila (IRE) had a blip last time out at Newmarket and needs to stretch out another 3f without clearly stout breeding or appearing to need further in her races. Regardless, both need a marked improvement to put it to the main protagonists here without needing too much like Mission Of Joy (CAN).
Village Voice knocked off Beach Bomb - who appeared in last year’s renewal of the race – in her last start taking the Waya Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. It wasn’t a marked upgrade on what she had produced in Europe and the market (16/1) has her about right.
Francis-Henri Graffard clearly still confident in Gezora (FR) landing another big one following a weaker run in the Arc just under a month ago. Prior to that run, in one of the biggest tests for a middle-distance horse in the world, she had been progressing well and earned a career best performance rating of 108. The Graffard factor here gives her an obvious edge and she should be up for consideration.
Billy the kid’s mount #6 Diamond Rain produced a career best equalling performance at Woodbine over 10f in the E P Taylor Stakes (G1) just a head behind winner She Feels Pretty (USA). She runs comfortably to Group 3 level in the UK but doesn’t have many miles on the clock compared to some four-year-olds so she is open to some improvement, but a clear second string for Godolphin in maybe too deep for the performance ratings she has on paper.
Be Your Best (IRE) hasn’t quite had it over 11f in the past two years to mix it with the main protagonists but would have a decent crack at the frame if she could find her performance levels from her victorious jaunt over 9f in the Gamely Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita – though even then she wouldn’t have enough to win this and has had enough time to find a decent peak at 5yo.
Cathedral is unproven over the trip and it’s not like her mare produces horses for this trip and Too Darn Hot drops from 39% strike rate over 7-9f, to 30% for 10-11f in his progeny stats so not a positive either. Doesn’t bring the requisite figures either.
Last year’s second placed Cinderella’s Dream is outside her in nine and she just had too much to do versus the winner from her position last year and she is given an easier task from stall nine this year. She clearly enjoys this track so we can expect an uplift in performance from what we have seen in her ‘preps’ this year.
#10 La Kika isn’t good enough, while #11 Bedtime Story has form lines with Gezora and therefore similar figures – though slightly inferior. She’s a pretty consistent middle of the road G1 performer and that is not to be sniffed, but she has a tougher draw and just warrants consideration for the exotics.
Bellezza (IRE) will need a fair improvement to match it with the likes of fellow domestics (former euro, granted), of which; She Feels Pretty (USA) offers the best with a peak 115 performance figure over 9f but is yet to try this distance and a rough draw puts her on the bench.
Sea The Fire got the car park draw (14) and ironically boast joint top rank performance figures with her compatriot in stall 13. As a result, she probably doesn’t warrant joint favouritism but Oisin on board is certainly in her favour.
The performance of Cinderella’s Dream last year can’t be ignored and with a better trip this year she should be right there, while fellow euro raider Gezora from the Francis-Henri Graffard stands out with a little more progressive upside and is marginally preferred to land this big one. Oisin to work his magic for See The Fire (5/1) to hit the frame with her class angle getting the nod over Bedtime Story (14/1). Looks like the market has it pretty right!
Gezora win @ 9/2
1-2-3: Gezora, Cinderella’s Dream, See The Fire/Bedtime Story