Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (7f, Dirt, $1,000,000)
Ways And Means returns to the race for the second time to try and better her fifth-place finish from 2024 at Santa Anita. She comes into this as favourite once again, and faces a relatively average field outside of Bob Baffert’s 3yo filly Explora and Sweet Azteca.
The former will have to run in the race of an ageist trend; three-year-olds went 0-11 through the first 11 editions and got three back on the board before drawing four blanks in the most recent editions. Hailing from Southern Callifornia, she will also have to defy the odds that have seen just three sprinters from the region win the race.
The latterly mentioned Sweet Azteca finally lines up in the Breeders’ Cup and has clearly had her issues with just eleven starts in her four-year long career. She boasts the best ceiling in the field with a 121 speed figure and 119 performance rating when winning the Beholder Mile (Grade 1) in 2024. She’s changed hands since but still retains a fair bit of quality with 105 and 108 figures in her two starts this year.
Ways And Means, on the other hand, has a peak performance rating of 110 that she booked when imposing a 7.75 length margin on Scylla in the Bed O’ Roses Stakes (Grade 2) last year. She landed performance figures of 103, 107, and 105 in her three starts this year over the distance – with the most recent being a visually impressive five length margin.
Both Evanesance and Domestic Oops have a best of 101, with the former notching that career best in her October prep for this race. Kilwin has only a marginally better profile than that pair. R Disaster benefitted from the draw to try to execute her running style from gate four, but she finds far deeper waters this time than she did when winning the Gallant Bloom (G2) last time our at Belmont.
Given her recent superiority on the figures and the potential pace set up that shouldn’t hurt Ways And Means more than it would her main opposition, she is taken to edge this over Sweet Azteca.
1-2-3: Ways And Means / Sweet Azteca / Explora
Ways And Means win @ 7/4
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) (5.5f, Turf, $1,000,000)
The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint has a fascinating make up, with the four inside draws wanting to get the pace along with Joe Shiesty in gate #11 and Miss Yechance in the outside post.
Short priced favourite, #3 Bacio will have to beat #1 John The Beer Man, #2 Shisospicy, and #4 Roja out to produce his preferred front running style. He’s yet to have it this hard in his career with easy leads in the Palace Of Holyrood House Handicap at Royal Ascot and the Nunthorpe (G1) most recently. He earned performance figures of 111 and and 110 respectively in those two starts and considering he all but had it his own way, he therefore represents poor value when compared to the second and third horses in the market (Commanche Brave and CY Fair).
That 111 falls some way short of the highest peak speed and performance figures in the field, with Commanche Brave notching a 117 figure when winning the Flying Five at the Curragh and CY Fair replicating the same figure in the Coronation Cup Stakes (Grade 3) at Saratoga in July. Granted, she was matched against an inferior field that day, but she should also have a favourable set up this weekend with the excessive amount of speed in the race.
Starlust will be licking his lips at the same prospect – of closing in on a pace boil over – like he did when winning the 2024 edition at Del Mar. He will have to find some 7lb, however, as a 5yo that has been to stud and back and he holds a peak performance figure of 110 when running two lengths fourth to Commanche Brave in the Flying Five on his penultimate start. Playing him in this is also probably lacking value with him being naturally over bet by the public due to the name recognition from his previous win in the race.
Finally, Joe Sheisty, out of #11 is well matched with Bacio on figures but will be trying to leg it across the pack from a wide draw, which can also be fraught with danger.
As a result, CY Fair is the preferred pick at a big price – having delivered for us as a juvenile last year at Del Mar.
1-2-3: CY Fair / Commanche Brave / Bacio
CY Fair each way @ 14/1 (8/1 Morning Line)
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) (1m, Dirt, $1,000,000)
The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile now has a completely different complexion following Godolphin’s decision to run Knightsbridge in the centrepiece Breeders’ Cup Classic - having been the likely winner of this race had he lined up.
That leaves Further Ado at the head of the market. And rightly so; the Gun Runner colt earned an elite speed figure of 126 when breaking his maiden at the track over 8.5f. The figure backed up a visually impressive margin of 20 lengths - but he was unable to match the figure next time out when a Grade 2 victor at Churchill Downs the start subsequent. He bounced following that, at Tampa Bay Downs, before booking a career second best 116 speed figure with success in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (Grade 1) at Keeneland.
The Kentucky Derby didn’t go to plan, yet he has retained a good level of ability in two of his three starts (struggling on a tough track at Monmouth Park in between). Now returning to the host track of his two best career performances, he represents great value at 11/4.
Second in the market, Bracket Buster, harbours the next best figure at 112 from imposing fifteen lengths on the West Virginia Governor’s Stakes (Listed) field at Mountaineer. That, however, is very much an anomaly in his profile – much like Iron Man Cal, who’s only breached the 105 mark on one occasion – (just) on the turf – in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar behind Henri Matisse.
Breaking from the five slot, Coal Battle hasn’t seen his best this year, which is backed up by a downturn in performance figures, and is winless since February of last year. Much like Full Serrano, who has not saluted the judge since September 2025.
The market has Lord Fons’ number at 20/1, while Moonlight, Forged Steel, T Kraft and Owen Almighty will have to improve 10+ pounds to match it with the Keeneland Further Ado. Chunk Of Gold is yet to get the job done against top class opposition despite posting good performance figures of 109 and 108 in two of three starts this year.
Further Ado, in particular at Keeneland, sets a good standard and his performance rating ceiling makes the 5/2 available look a snip against a majority that are here to take part.
1-2-3: Further Ado / Bracket Buster / Chunk Of Gold
Further Ado win @ 5/2
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (1m 1.5f, Turf, $2,000,000)
The Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf is an interesting renewal, seeing Precise actually line up at the Breeders’ Cup – providing she is not another late scratch – following a wasted trip to Del Mar last year.
She’s the second best filly in the race behind Blue Bolt, who is unbeaten this year and 9 from 12 for her lifetime. That includes a pair of two length plus victories coming into the race – most recently in the Sun Chariot Stakes (G1) – that came with a performance rating of 111, just two shy of her peak performance rating of 113 from the Falmouth Stakes (G1) at Newmarket where she put Precise away by two lengths.
She does, however, now have to stretch out to 10f. That shouldn’t be an issue judging by her locomotion profile, with her stride frequency being indicative of a middle-distance horse. Connections wouldn’t be wasting their money to try this out for fun when team-mate Red Letter already sets a good standard representing them at 1m 2f. Though she has some way to match Blue Bolt if the daughter of Blue Point is able to replicate her performance level while stretching out an extra two furlongs.
Thought Process and Lush Lips offer the best challenge from the domestic representation, coming into the race off the back of a career best 109 performance figures. The former hails from California, and is therefore on the wrong side of the trends for winning profiles in this race. The latter, however, does have a Keeneland prep in her favour along with the Keeneland in form jockey Tyler Gafflione piloting and is clearly worth including for the exotics at 12/1. The same could be argued for Classic Q, at 20/1, who beat Lush Lips in the First Lady Stakes (G1).
Blue Bolt has clearly developed the priceless quality of just being able to get the job done - an infallibility, in other words. But for fear of backing every favourite, the extra value is evidently among the rest of the European contingent, with Jancis landing a 110 speed rating and 111 performance rating behind Blue Bolt in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (G2) at Royal Ascot – proving she has the talent to mix it with the top fillies in this race. She also comes into the race off the back of a decent figure at Woodbine, where she stretched out to 10f for the first time. This unassuming route in, matched with her latent talent, is allowing her to fly under the radar and, given she has proven she can win on a fast surface (Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket), she looks a great each way (20/1) alternative to the favourite Blue Bolt.
1-2-3: Blue Bolt / Precise / Jancis
Jancis each way @ 20/1 (20/1 Morning Line)
Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade 1) (6f, Dirt, $2,000,000)
The Breeders’ Cup Sprint is one of, if not, the most open and shut cases seen at the Breeders’ Cup. Englishman has produced back to back 126 performance figures, accompanied by a speed figure of 125 – winning comfortably on both occasions. A minor blip in losing prior to those starts was clearly swiftly rectified by his history making handler – Cherie Devaux.
He’s a monster, and has the speed to lead if he wants – as well as the speed to excel at 6f over 7f - but he shouldn’t need to here with a good pace set up inside from Mad House, Liam Smith, Listenupshance, and Dark Saffron. The latter is the most closely matched on figures with a career best 118 at Meydan in the Golden Shaheen (G1) in March ahead of last years champ Bentornato. A long layoff since and a different kettle of fish here, we likely won’t be seeing that on Saturday.
Instead, Englishman should be able to stalk the pace and convert in fine style. The hope, for American punters, is that the 4/5 will stick around; it shouldn’t.
1-2-3: Englishman / Nakatomi / Liam Smith
Englishman win @ 11/10 (4/5 Morning Line)
Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1) (1m, Turf, $2,000,000)
Notable Speech is back to defend his title off the back of two resounding wins either side of the Atlantic ocean. The latest of which was a 1.25 length victory over Deterministic in the Woodbine Mile Stakes (G1), less than a month after he imposed a 2.75 length margin on Lake Forest in the City Of York Stakes (G1).
It should be the same again here, regardless of the hopeful hype surrounding the likes of Lake Forest – who was also readily beaten by Rhetorical last time out – as well as True Love and Puerto Rico. The last of which, is winless in every start through 2026 and probably doesn’t want it this fast. True Love also got back on track following three failed attempts in France with the 7f Prix de la Foret (G1). That still wasn’t enough to come within five pounds of the Godolphin miler, with a performance figure of 112 to her name.
Indeed, Rhetorical provides the highest ceiling of the domestic contingent with a peak performance rating of 119, booked when winning the Coolmore Turf Mile Stakes at Keeneland at the back end of 2025. He is yet to get within six pounds of that in 2026, however, but represents value for the exotics at 16/1 (8/1 Morning Line). Deterministic follows his fellow US counterpart with a figure of 115 – achieved when following this year’s favourite – in the Woodbine Mile (G1).
With a draw that isn’t getting in the way of him, Notable Speech is a fair favourite here and I wouldn’t be looking to get him beat; There are levels to this game and he is different gravy.
1-2-3: Notable Speech / Rhetorical / Deterministic
Notable Speech win @ Evens (7/5 Morning Line)
Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade 1) (1m 1f, Dirt, $2,000,000)
The Distaff has developed into a fascinating contest between Nitrogen and Fully Subscribed, who sit at the top of the market at Even money and 2/1 respectively. Both horses arriving in excellent form with Fully Subscribed landing the Spinster Stakes (G1) at the track in her most recent prep, while Nitrogen took the Beldame (G2) at Belmont. She is still yet to finish out of the places in eighteen career starts.
They are joined by Breeders’ Cup champion Super Corredora, who will be looking to repeat last year's success in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She has clearly had to nurse a few issues with a long layoff that had her miss all of the summer racing.
Scottish Lassie appears to have gone off the boil with weaker performance figures than back to back Grade 1 placed efforts would suggest, while Immersive, Regaled, Measure and Eunomia don’t make the cut in terms of 2026 performance figures.
Splendora, on the other hand, has strung together three excellent wins with performance figures of 110, 112, and 113 that back up the visually impressive nature of the three Grade 2 wins over 8.5f. Now scratched.
There is little appeal to back either of the top two in the market at the prices so a tentative exacta is on the calling card.
1-2-3: Nitrogen / Fully Subscribed /Super Corredora
No bet.
Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (1m4f, Turf, $5,000,000)
The Turf is arguably one of the most competitive races through the meeting, with a strong European contingent taking on the leading American performers over a mile and a half. A rarity, defending champion Ethical Diamond has returned to defend his crown and has been tarred with a double figure price. The favourite, Diamond Necklace will break out of – a far from ideal - stall 12 for Aidan O'Brien after finishing third in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. That will no doubt of taken a lot out of her, as it did with Minnie Hauk in the race last year. She began her career with six consecutive victories and has now established herself among the best middle-distance fillies in Europe.
Bay City Roller boast the highest ceiling in the race in terms of figures, with a speed and performance figure of 120, and now travels as another major European contender following his 3rd to Ombudsman in the Champion Stakes (G1) at Ascot. Oisin Murphy maintains the ride and his ability to secure a good early position will be crucial from stall 13, with the risk of being caught wide if he can’t find cover early. Nevertheless, he has the class to overcome the draw and should be finishing strongly.
Benvenuto Cellini is particularly interesting for Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore – who has chosen the Irish Derby winner over his favoured stablemate – but he also comes out of the Arc, finishing ninth. And in conjunction with being four pounds inferior to Bay City Roller on peak performance ratings, that will no doubt have taken it’s toll.
Especially in comparison Ethical Diamond, who has had just four runs this season with this engagement as the ultimate target. He comes into this in better shape than he did last year (104) with a performance rating of 110 achieved when finishing second in the Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational Stakes (G2), so is very capable to go some way better and provide a creditable defence.
Burnham Square, despite winning the Arlington Million Stakes (G1) on his penultimate start, should struggle to kick it with these top European middle-distance horses. The same can be said for El Cordobes who returns back with one start after a long layoff that meant he missed the summer’s racing. He’ll be helped by the draw in #5, two inside of Hotazhell - the shock winner of the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) this year.
Johanna Walsh adds further European depth following her Irish Oaks victory, but has since disappointed in the Yorkshire Oaks (G1) and, much like Far Bridge, Tiffany and Survie, may only be worth considering for the exotics. Survie, Minaret Station, and Deep Monster all don’t make the cut on ratings, while Test Score brings a solid standard to the table with a 110 performance rating last time out that would – with a little improvement – see him capable of springing an upset here.
It’s an extremely tough puzzle to solve and barring a tentative bet on Bay City Roller, I’m happy to watch this unfold in front of us at the back end of day two of a top class meeting.
1-2-3: Bay City Roller / Benvenuto Cellini / Johanna Walsh
Bay City Roller each way @ 8/1 (5/1 Morning Line)
Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (1m2f, Dirt, $7,000,000)
Tough to take a Classic with just seven runners lining up for the $7,000,000 prize, but at least we have the reigning champion back to defend his title.
The champ, Forever Young, will have to face reigning Horse of the Year in Sovereignty, with the Godolphin horse having missed last year’s engagement due to a spiked temperature. Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo is part of a select, strong supporting cast but comes into the back of this with a downturn in performance ratings – booking back-to-back 106 figures after his Derby winning 111. For the Cherie Devaux trainee, stall #3 is favourable from a ground-saving perspective, which is conducive to his running style, and his ability to accelerate late could prove decisive if Knightsbridge and Napoleon Solo establish a demanding early tempo.
The withdrawal of Magnitude is an important development in the race, as it removes one of the principal early speed influences and potentially changes how the leading contenders approach the race. Forever Young remains the benchmark after his memorable victory in last year's Classic at Del Mar that garnered a speed rating of 120 and a performance rating of 123. Yoshito Yahagi's Japanese superstar has since globetrotted with great aplomb, finishing second in the Dubai World Cup (116 performance rating) before returning to the US to win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont.
He has the tactical speed to race close to the pace without needing to lead, and drawing stall 5 appears to be fine as it gives Ryusei Sakai options to establish a prominent position while avoiding the traffic that can affect horses drawn closer to the rail. Sovereignty is his most formidable opponent, coming into the race off the back of a 118 performance figure in the Whitney (G1). He is now trending back towards his best that saw him execute a formidable 3yo career.
Stablemate Knightsbridge joins the of Into Mischief to take up a harder assignment than his theoretical win of this year’s Dirt Mile (G1), but he evidently will need to find some ten pounds of improvement to mix it with the top two in the race.
The Puma looks an interesting alternative after his impressive victory in the Pennsylvania Derby, where he secured his first Grade 1 success. His draw in stall 4 gives Javier Castellano an excellent opportunity to ride him to tactics, but he still lacks the top end quality to mix it with the likes of Sovereignty and Forever Young finished fourth on his previous attempt at the distance.
T O Password completes the field and represents an interesting Japanese angle. He has international experience and took fifth in the 2024 renewal of the Kentucky Derby, but his overall form doesn’t immediately suggest he can beat several of these established Grade 1 performers.
Given Sovereignty is on his way back up – despite some lackadaisical recent works – he appears to represent value at 11/4 over Forever Young at 2/1. He may just be able to deliver the boys in blue their first Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
1-2-3: Sovereignty / Forever Young / Golden Tempo
Sovereignty win @11/4